World climate change and mycotoxins in food and water

Abstract

[Excerpt] Climate change challenges food production. There will be massive problems in already hot countries in relation to obtaining food and water. However, mycotoxins are a crucial aspect of food safety affecting all countries, although only one paper referred directly to this in relation to climate change as reported in the first comprehensive review [1]. More specific predictions will be made in this current presentation on how climate change, as described in the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, will affect mycotoxins. Temperature and water activity are crucial for fungal growth and mycotoxin production, although the optima for both are different. There are naive assumptions being made that warmer and more humid weather will increase all fungal growth and mycotoxin contamination: The situation is much more complicated than that. What can be said about how different climate change in the major areas of the world will affect mycotoxins in the crops? Some regions (e.g. tropical countries) may become too hot and dry for the survival of mycotoxigenic fungi. Could this lead to the extinction of Aspergillus flavus due to the near pasteurization temperatures? Certain crops may become liable to aflatoxins (AF) in currently cool climates and cold regions more susceptible to temperate problems, e.g. ochratoxin A (OTA), deoxynivalenol or patulin. In general, mycotoxigenic fungi with high temperature optima for growth will not be replaced by those with low. Fungi with low optima may be outcompeted by organisms with higher temperature ranges (e.g. Fusarium verticillioides may dominate most other toxigenic fungi as the growth optimum is high, as are the maxima for fumonisin production). AF contamination is unlikely to be replaced, to any large extent, by any of the other mycotoxins on this basis alone. The Alternaria toxins could be replaced by other mycotoxins as the optima for these compounds are particularly low. What other sensible predictions can be made? [...]