Analysis of sources of risk and uncertainties in the electricity system

Abstract

Electricity power planning is a serious national task that encompasses not only forecasts but more importantly the evolution in short, medium and long term of each element that composes the assumptions, the constraints and/or the parameters of the planning model. Deterministic models can bring simplicity to the electricity power planning but do not consider the uncertainties and sources of risk of the electricity system. On the other hand, stochastic models tend to include the behaviour of one or more uncertain parameters that are critical to obtain a robust solution, being however more detailed and lengthy than deterministic models. The aim of this work was to identify the major sources of risk and uncertainties facing electricity system, representing valuable input for the electricity planner task. From this study it can be observed that several different behaviours for each uncertain parameter can be found along a time horizon. Thus, it is concluded that reeling on average lowers can represent a reductionist approach and in order to obtain more reliable scenarios for future electricity system, the statistical characteristics of each parameter should be considered in the electricity power planning.