Portuguese 2015 legislative elections: how economic voting, the median voter and unemployment led to ‘the times they are a’changin’?

Abstract

[Excerpt] The consecutive political earthquakes brought about by the electoral results in Greece in the aftermath of its adjustment programmes raised the question of whether Portugal would follow Greece in ousting its pro-austerity government or, alternatively, would re-elect the parties in government, as in the UK.

Unlike Greece, which is already in its third consecutive adjustment programme since April 2010, Portugal managed to successfully conclude its 3-year programme in April 2014. Although the austerity measures, including higher taxes and cuts in the salaries of public servants, caused recession and record high unemployment rates (around 16%), the country came out of recession in the second quarter of 2013, and the unemployment rate has been decreasing since then. Two years ago most political analysts considered the re-election of the Portuguese government as almost impossible. However, the slow, but steady, economic recovery increased the government’s popularity giving it a fighting chance in the 2015 elections.

The possibility that the Portuguese government would be re-elected after conducting a tough economic adjustment programme was especially interesting to European institutions and to other programme countries. This has made the Portuguese legislative elections gain unusual international interest.