Has Portugal gone wireless? : looking back, looking ahead

Abstract

This paper analyses the pattern and rate of adoption of mobile telephones by the Portuguese population. It is shown that the pattern of diffusion is S-shaped and is consistent with a logistic function, which describes a symmetrical growth process. Furthermore, it is found that about 67 percent of the population will likely adopt mobile phones, and that the levelling-off process in the diffusion of mobile phones has already begun. The analysis is intended to inform the larger discussion of managing the communications service, as well as to assist analysts concerned about assessing the impact of public policies in the evolution of communications sectors.