Popularity functions, partisan effects and support in parliament

Abstract

This paper analyzes the popularity of the main political entities in Portugal. After describing the recent evolution and structure of the Portuguese political system, we present estimations of popularity functions for the Assembly, Government, Prime Minister, and President using several estimation techniques to incorporate the timeseries and cross-equation aspects of the models. The results strongly favor the responsibility hypothesis, with unemployment, and to a lesser extent inflation, affecting popularity levels. There is also evidence that voters’ evaluations of incumbents’ economic performance depends on the ideology and support in Parliament of the latter. Finally, there is evidence of popularity erosion over consecutive terms and of honeymoon effects.