Popularity functions for Portugal

Abstract

The paper analyses the political and economic determinants of the Portuguese political entities’ popularity, following Veiga (1998), the only published study on popularity functions for Portugal. After a description of the recent evolution and structure of the Portuguese political system, popularity functions are estimated for the Assembly, Government, Prime Minister, and President, using OLS, ARIMAX and SUR with AR components. Strong evidence is found in favor of the responsibility hypothesis, with inflation and, especially, unemployment affecting popularity levels. Results support the existence of popularity erosion over consecutive terms and of honeymoon effects. Ideological issues or support in parliament do not seem to be taken into account in the evaluations of incumbents’ economic performance.