Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1822/12895

TitleOPEC's oil exporting strategy and macroeconomic (in)stability
Author(s)Conraria, Luís Aguiar
Wen, Yi
KeywordsEquilibrium indeterminacy
Oil
OPEC strategy
Great Moderation
Issue date2012
PublisherElsevier
JournalEnergy Economics
Abstract(s)Aguiar-Conraria and Wen (2008) argued that dependence on foreign oil raises the likelihood of equilibrium indeterminacy (economic instability) for oil importing countries. We argue that this relation is more subtle. The endogenous choices of prices and quantities by a cartel of oil exporters, such as the OPEC, can affect the directions of the changes in the likelihood of equilibrium indeterminacy. We show that fluctuations driven by self-fulfilling expectations under oil shocks are easier to occur if the cartel sets the price of oil, but the result is reversed if the cartel sets the quantity of production. These results offer a potentially interesting explanation for the decline in economic volatility (i.e., the Great Moderation) in oil importing countries since the mid- 1980s when the OPEC cartel changed its market strategies from setting prices to setting quantities, despite the fact that oil prices are far more volatile today than they were 30 years ago.
TypeArticle
URIhttp://hdl.handle.net/1822/12895
DOI10.1016/j.eneco.2011.03.014
ISSN0140-9883
Publisher versionhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2011.03.014
Peer-Reviewedyes
AccessRestricted access (UMinho)
Appears in Collections:NIPE - Artigos em Revistas de Circulação Internacional com Arbitragem Científica

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