Do wildfires burn tourism intentions? The case of Portugal

Abstract

Fire intensity and size incite visitation decrease and recreational losses, relevant tourism variables for European economies. As a result of climate change, this reality is becoming more evident. Due to significant gaps in analyzing the relationship between wildfires and tourism demand, this paper aims to explain how tourism demand reacts to wildfires in Portugal. We use a novel approach in these studies and estimate a spatial econometric model to analyze the relationship between total burned areas and overnight stays in a touristic establishment in a given municipality and its neighbouring municipalities. Our results show that wildfires negatively affect the overnight stays in the same location but also cause spillover effects in neighbouring municipalities. Also, the wildfire occurrences are positively related to the number of overnight stays after three months, suggesting a delay in tourism activities.