A conceptual model for reliability analysis of pavement foundations

Abstract

A Reliability Analysis (RA) evaluates the probability of a particular behaviour, giving information about the contribution of each uncertain input parameter. The application of RA in geotechnical engineering, and particularly in pavement, has been delayed because of the inherent variability of the soil and type of the multilayer system. Nevertheless, because of regulation codes and social concerns, geotechnical and pavement engineers need to increase their ability for RA. Therefore, the authors aim to demonstrate and explain a way to incorporate the variability and uncertainties in design processes. The engineer should take into account uncertainties that come from the soil intrinsic and spatial variability, model errors, uncertainties in actions and also human errors. An application example of FWD backcalculation and sensitivity analysis is presented to illustrate the relative influence of variables in the overall response of the pavement foundation and consequently how important these results will be in a full RA.