Classifying and systemising uncertainty and instability : a dynamic social network approach to risk

Abstract

The narrow and probabilistic, ergodic approach to risk, to date, has potentially not fully understood or incorporated the dynamical synthetic ecology in which our systems actually operate. A dynamic synthetic ecology made even more complex and potentially uncertain and unstable through the degrees of socio-info/techno connectivity we now enjoy compared to 30 years ago. This means our decisions and solutions are often deeply entangled in ways that it is almost impossible to measure. Yet Risk Management continues to call for measured certainty based upon a potentially increasingly narrow and frozen understanding of Risk – usually ‘taken’ at the unit / operational but not the systems level. In this paper, we look at uncertainty and instability as being connected but not necessarily synonymous indicators of risk. In terms of instability, we look to classify different types of instability that a system may face including, for example, technical risks introduced through disruptive technologies.