Economics and elections in Western Europe : 1960-1997

Abstract

This paper analyzes macroeconomic conditions and parliamentary election outcomes in 13 European countries over the 1960-1997 period. The analysis focuses on two themes. The first is that different macroeconomic theories imply that different economic indicators should be important for voters. The second is that political responsibility should condition voters’ responses to economic performance. We estimate a model in which indicators of economic performance and political responsibility interactively determine election outcomes. Performance measures suggested by alternative theories are included in empirical specifications. Results suggest that changes in inflation, especially when measured relative to the European average, have an impact on incumbents’ vote shares. The analysis fails to isolate political responsibility variables that condition the impact of economic performance on the vote, however.

Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) – Programa PRAXIS XXI.