Utilize este identificador para referenciar este registo:
https://hdl.handle.net/1822/8222
Título: | Growth, centrism and semi-presidentialism: forecasting the portuguese general elections |
Autor(es): | Magalhães, Pedro C. Conraria, Luís Aguiar |
Palavras-chave: | Forecasting Portuguese general elections Economics and elections Semi-presidentialism |
Data: | 2008 |
Editora: | Universidade do Minho. Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas (NIPE) |
Citação: | NIPE Working Paper series; 20 |
Resumo(s): | Electoral behaviour in recently established democracies has been more frequently treated from the point of view of its unpredictability, volatility and personalistic elements than that of its "fundamentals". In this paper, we wish to contribute to redress this imbalance by advancing a forecasting model for general elections in a young democracy, Portugal. Building on the very familiar notion that the vote for the incumbent can be predicted on the basis of "economics" and "politics", we capture "economics" through a nonlinear specification of economic growth. Furthermore, we include two structural features of Portuguese politics, which have entailed a systematic electoral punishment for the centre-left Socialist Party as the incumbent and for all incumbents involved in political conflicts with the elected president in Portugal's semi-presidentialism. |
Tipo: | Documento de trabalho |
URI: | https://hdl.handle.net/1822/8222 |
Acesso: | Acesso aberto |
Aparece nas coleções: | NIPE - Documentos de Trabalho |
Ficheiros deste registo:
Ficheiro | Descrição | Tamanho | Formato | |
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NIPE_WP_20_2008.pdf | Working Paper | 373,43 kB | Adobe PDF | Ver/Abrir |