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TitleA comparison of methods for forecasting emergency department crowding
Author(s)Silva, Miguel Carvalho
Dória-Nóbrega, Sónia
Monteiro, M. Teresa T.
de Sá-Soares, Filipe
Issue date2015
Abstract(s)The large influx of patients to hospital emergency room is considered an international problem affecting not only the service providers but the users themselves. Overcrowding emergency department is associated with several factors such as the reduced access to other emergency medical services or primary care and this has caused several delays in care for urgent patients and even increased mortality. The main difficulty in forecast the number of users that arrive to the emergency department and the large number of intervening variables in this complex system, leads to a difficult management task. It is common for the management team to use metrics based on empiric knowledge, however, the use of such method is not at all the most effective. Recent studies report forecasting methods based on long time series, as the most accurate way to predict the patients arrival in the short and medium term. This work studies this kind of methods in order to optimize the resources, minimizing the costs, to provide more efficient health care.
TypeBook part
AccessRestricted access (UMinho)
Appears in Collections:CAlg - Resumos em livros de atas/Abstracts in proceedings

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