Low-Emission Energy Outlook in Small Island Developing States – The case of Sao Tome And Principe

Abstract

This work proposes a combination of a cost-efficacy, multicriteria and partial equilibrium analyses, to support the evaluation of viable options for low-carbon and resilient development, in a Small Island Developing State. We present reference and mitigation scenarios to 2030, including measures of renewable electricity, both in the grid and isolated; transports replacement; and energy efficiency in households and services sectors, including improved stoves, efficient street lighting and implementation of household LEDs. We report the marginal abatement cost curve for such measures and the results of a multicriteria qualitative assessment, showing strong support for the implementation of 4MW of renewable electricity in mini-hydropower plants, 12MW in solar PV power, and 1MW in an isolated mini hydropower plant. We quantify energy and emissions saved in the mitigation scenario and a new energy balance. Overall, we estimate possible reductions in emissions in 2030 of 29% in electricity generation, and 0.25% in final energy demand, totalizing 9% fewer emissions in the country in 2030. The combined methodology shows higher emission savings than those reported by the country in its National Determined Contribution to the UNFCCC. This study aims to support the idea that SIDS should put forth robust low-carbon development roadmaps, in addition to adaptation strategies.