Predicting asset returns in the BRICS: the role of macroeconomic and fundamental predictors

Abstract

We are among the first to provide evidence for the BRICS countries on the predictability of stock returns using macroeconomic, macro-financial and US/global variables and find that there is predictability for all the countries. We consider both in-sample and out-of-sample tests. The gains in predictability are primarily available one quarter ahead, but in some cases, two and four quarters ahead.