Bridge maintenance models using expert opinion

Abstract

The basis of decision-making related to planning and scheduling of maintenance actions is the most challenging task in Bridge Management Systems (BMS) and is highly dependent on the quality of both performance and maintenance models. The current BMSs use Markov chains for modelling the deterioration of existing bridges over time. Although these stochastic processes are able to include the effects of maintenance actions on the performance indicators, the existing management systems are still very limited when addressing this issues. This paper presents a methodology to develop a maintenance model to be integrated in a BMS. The model aims to define a set of maintenance actions that lead to the implementation of an effective program in the extension of bridge’s lifetime. A probabilistic approach was used to assess the effectiveness of maintenance actions. The uncertain quantities were based on expert opinion and engineering judgment. To do so, a questionnaire, using a simple form of elicitation, was developed and distributed by the respondents: concessionaires, consultants, manufactures and suppliers. The obtained results as well as the difficulties encountered throughout this procedure are discussed.