Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1822/32668

TitleDoes voter turnout affect the votes for the incumbent government?
Author(s)Martins, Rodrigo
Veiga, Francisco José
KeywordsVote shares
Turnout
Legislative elections
Portugal
D72
H7
Issue date2014
PublisherElsevier
JournalEuropean Journal of Political Economy
Abstract(s)This paper analyzes the effects of voter turnout on the vote shares received by the incumbent government. A system of simultaneous equations is estimated using a panel dataset of 278 Portuguese municipalities, for the period 1979–2005, covering 10 legislative elections. The results indicate that right-wing governments have lower vote shares when turnout is higher, while leftwing ones seem to be unaffected. There is also evidence of the responsibility hypothesis, that turnout is higher in closer elections, and that regional/local economic variables have non-linear effects on turnout implying that it is higher in good and bad times, but lower when the economy is neither too hot nor too cold.
TypeArticle
URIhttp://hdl.handle.net/1822/32668
DOI10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2014.09.001
ISSN0176-2680
Publisher versionhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0176268014000792#
Peer-Reviewedyes
AccessRestricted access (UMinho)
Appears in Collections:NIPE - Artigos em Revistas de Circulação Internacional com Arbitragem Científica

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