Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1822/25134

TitleDoes voter turnout affect the votes for the incumbent government?
Author(s)Martins, Rodrigo
Veiga, Francisco José
KeywordsVote shares
Turnout
Legislative elections
Portugal
Issue date2013
PublisherUniversidade do Minho. Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas (NIPE)
Abstract(s)This paper analyzes the effects of voter turnout on the vote shares received by the incumbent government. A system of simultaneous equations is estimated using a panel dataset of 278 Portuguese municipalities, for the period 1979-2005, covering 10 legislative elections. The results indicate that right-wing governments have lower vote shares when turnout is higher, while left-wing ones seem to be unaffected. There is also evidence of the responsibility hypothesis, that turnout is higher in closer elections, and that regional/local economic variables have non-linear effects on turnout.
TypeWorking paper
URIhttp://hdl.handle.net/1822/25134
Publisher versionhttp://www.nipe.eeg.uminho.pt/Uploads/NIPE_WP_15_2013.pdf
Peer-Reviewedno
AccessOpen access
Appears in Collections:NIPE - Documentos de Trabalho

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