Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://hdl.handle.net/1822/22470
Title: | Are there change-points in the likelihood of a fiscal consolidation ending? |
Author(s): | Agnello, Luca Castro, Vítor Sousa, Ricardo M. |
Keywords: | Fiscal consolidations Duration analysis Weibull Model Duration dependence Change-points |
Issue date: | 2012 |
Abstract(s): | Building on a narrative approach to identify episodes of fiscal consolidation, data for a group of 17 industrial countries over the period 1978-2009 and both continuous-time and discrete-time duration models, we find evidence suggesting that likelihood of a fiscal consolidation ending increases over time, but only for programs that last less than six years. Additionally, fiscal consolidations tend to last longer in non-European than in European countries. Our results emphasize that chronic fiscal imbalances might lead to a vicious austerity cycle, while discipline in the behavior of fiscal authorities is a means of achieving credible and shorter adjustment measures. |
Type: | Working paper |
URI: | https://hdl.handle.net/1822/22470 |
Peer-Reviewed: | no |
Access: | Open access |
Appears in Collections: | NIPE - Documentos de Trabalho |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
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NIPE_WP_18_2012.pdf | Documento principal | 468,92 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |