Convergence of economic sentiment cycles in the euro area : a time-frequency analysis

Abstract

We use wavelet tools and Economic Sentiment Indicators to study the similarity and synchronization of economic cycles in the Euro Area. We assess the time-varying and frequency-varying pattern of business cycles synchronization in the Area and test the impact of the creation of the Economic and Monetary Union in 1999. Among several results, we find that (a) EMU is associated with a significant increase in the similarity and synchronization of the economic sentiment in the Euro Area; (b) the hard-peg of its currency to the Euro led to a comparable effect on Denmark's economic sentiment after 1999, differently from what happened in the case of the UK.