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TitleThe determinants of vote intentions in Portugal
Author(s)Veiga, Francisco José
Veiga, Linda Gonçalves
KeywordsVoting functions
Responsibility hypothesis
Vote intentions
Issue date2001
PublisherUniversidade do Minho. Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas (NIPE)
Series/Report no.NIPE Working Papers series ; 6
Abstract(s)This paper offers additional insights on the interactions between economics and politics in Portugal. We use an unexplored data set consisting of monthly polls on vote intentions for the main political parties in Portugal, since 1986. Results indicate that: (1) socialist governments had less electoral support than social democratic governments; (2) social democratic governments enjoyed a honeymoon period with the electorate while socialist governments did not; (3) vote intentions for incumbent parties tend to decrease with time in office; (4) voters hold incumbents responsible for the evolution of the economy; (5) the socialists are more penalized for rises in unemployment than are the social democrats.
TypeWorking paper
AccessOpen access
Appears in Collections:NIPE - Documentos de Trabalho

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