Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:

TitleBusiness cycle synchronization and the Euro: a wavelet analysis
Author(s)Conraria, Luís Aguiar
Soares, M. J.
KeywordsBusiness cycle synchronization
European Union Integration
Continuous wavelet transform
Wavelet distance matrix
Multidimensional scaling
Issue dateSep-2011
JournalJournal of Macroeconomics
Abstract(s)We use wavelet analysis to study business cycle synchronization across the EU-15 and the Euro-12 countries. Based on the wavelet transform, we propose a metric to measure and test for business cycles synchronization. Several conclusions emerge. France and Germany form the core of the Euro land, being the most synchronized countries with the rest of Europe. Portugal, Greece, Ireland and Finland do not show statistically relevant degrees of synchronization with Europe. We also show that some countries (like Spain) have a French accent, while others have a German accent (e.g., Austria). Perhaps surprisingly, we find that the French business cycle has been leading the German business cycle as well as the rest of Europe. Among the countries that may, in the future, join the Euro, the Czech Republic seems the most promising candidate.
Publisher version
AccessOpen access
Appears in Collections:DMA - Artigos (Papers)
NIPE - Artigos em Revistas de Circulação Internacional com Arbitragem Científica

Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat 
Business cycle synchronization and the Euro a wavelet analysis.pdfBusiness cycle synchronization and the Euro : a wavelet analysis931,74 kBAdobe PDFView/Open

Partilhe no FacebookPartilhe no TwitterPartilhe no DeliciousPartilhe no LinkedInPartilhe no DiggAdicionar ao Google BookmarksPartilhe no MySpacePartilhe no Orkut
Exporte no formato BibTex mendeley Exporte no formato Endnote Adicione ao seu ORCID