Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1822/13720

TitleBusiness cycle synchronization and the Euro: a wavelet analysis
Author(s)Conraria, Luís Aguiar
Soares, M. J.
KeywordsBusiness cycle synchronization
European Union Integration
Continuous wavelet transform
Wavelet distance matrix
Multidimensional scaling
Issue dateSep-2011
PublisherElsevier
JournalJournal of Macroeconomics
Abstract(s)We use wavelet analysis to study business cycle synchronization across the EU-15 and the Euro-12 countries. Based on the wavelet transform, we propose a metric to measure and test for business cycles synchronization. Several conclusions emerge. France and Germany form the core of the Euro land, being the most synchronized countries with the rest of Europe. Portugal, Greece, Ireland and Finland do not show statistically relevant degrees of synchronization with Europe. We also show that some countries (like Spain) have a French accent, while others have a German accent (e.g., Austria). Perhaps surprisingly, we find that the French business cycle has been leading the German business cycle as well as the rest of Europe. Among the countries that may, in the future, join the Euro, the Czech Republic seems the most promising candidate.
TypeArticle
URIhttp://hdl.handle.net/1822/13720
DOI10.1016/j.jmacro.2011.02.005
ISSN0164-0704
Publisher versionhttp://dx.doi.org/doi:10.1016/j.jmacro.2011.02.005
Peer-Reviewedyes
AccessOpen access
Appears in Collections:DMA - Artigos (Papers)
NIPE - Artigos em Revistas de Circulação Internacional com Arbitragem Científica

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