Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1822/12646

TitleForecasting spanish elections
Author(s)Magalhães, Pedro C.
Conraria, Luís Aguiar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S.
Issue date2011
PublisherUniversidade do Minho. Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas (NIPE)
Abstract(s)The behavior of the individual Spanish voter has come to be rather well-understood, thanks to a growing research literature. However, no models have appeared to explain, or to forecast, national election outcomes. The presence of this research gap contrasts sharply with the extensive election forecasting work done on other leading Western democracies. Here we fill this gap. The model, developed from core political economy theory, is parsimonious but statistically robust. Further, it promises considerable prediction accuracy of Spanish general election outcomes, six months before the contest actually occurs. After presenting the model, and carrying out extensive regression diagnostics, we offer an ex ante forecast of the 2012 general election.
TypeWorking paper
URIhttp://hdl.handle.net/1822/12646
Publisher versionhttp://www3.eeg.uminho.pt/economia/nipe/docs/2011/NIPE_WP_17_2011.pdf
Peer-Reviewedno
AccessOpen access
Appears in Collections:NIPE - Documentos de Trabalho

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